In 2023, vital progress was to promote information integrity in elections. This included a coordination centre and dedicated legislation against foreign information manipulation, common classification frameworks to harmonise analysis, and increased use of networks of cooperation to increase resilience.
But where are we halfway into 2024? Here are some selected highlights (or in some cases, lowlights) so far:
Taiwan – For information manipulators, books are back
Taiwan is often considered patient zero of China’s ‘United Front’ strategy of influence operations. Heading into 2024, Taiwan’s 13 January election was anticipated to provide insight on the very latest foreign influence tactics. Few would have guessed that these would include the unexpected resurrection of the humble book.
During the campaign, a 318-page book packed with disinformation, ‘The Secret History of Tsai Ing-Wen’ was circulated. The book used sexist falsehoods and tropes to smear Taiwan’s then-President. Analysts linked it to PRC-related information operation assets.
But why produce a book in the era of social media? According to NGO Doublethink Lab, the book served as a script for generative AI disinformation such as videos featuring newsreaders reading out sections of the book. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Albert Zhang noted that YouTube channels connected to Spamouflage, an information manipulation network, published at least 490 videos referencing the book between 4 and 10 January.
Comoros - Shutdowns still find new adherents
Internet shutdowns open the door to disinformation by silencing factcheckers and journalists. They violate freedom of expression and impose severe costs on the economy. 2023 was the worst year yet for shutdowns, but 2024 offered a chance for a fresh start.
Of the 64 countries that were scheduled to have an election in 2024, 24 of these had imposed an Internet shutdown in the past. By choosing to join their ranks, the Comoros (where elections were held on 14 January) showed that even countries with no history of shutdowns can be enticed by the allure of mass censorship during election times. Other countries which imposed shutdowns in early 2024 have included Azerbaijan, Pakistan, India, and Mauritania.
Pakistan - Generative AI can help prisoners campaign
Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party candidate Imran Khan was unable to campaign in-person in the February elections to return to the presidency as he had been imprisoned. However, by harnessing generative AI, he was able to virtually address hundreds of thousands of his supporters from behind bars.
This novel approach showed how AI is not just about disinformation and distrust, but can also help facilitate political participation – or at least, virtual participation.
India - Cheapfakes can still beat deepfakes
For years, analysts predicted impending democratic doom at the hand of deepfakes. The current picture this year has been mixed. For example, in Indonesia, deepfakes enabled the sidestepping of rules preventing children from appearing in campaign material, whereas in Mexico, Wilson Center analysts suggest that an overfocus on deepfakes risked diverting attention from other core issues.
Research shows that realism is not the only factor affecting the believability of disinformation: repetition, narrative appeal, perceived authority, group identification, and the viewer’s state of mind may all matter more. Indeed, in India’s election this year, factcheckers reported that low-quality ‘cheapfakes’ comprising modified and mislabelled videos had more impact than sophisticated deepfakes.
This may partly be a question of timing. Whilst it has long been easy to create poor-quality deepfakes, only recently has the capability to easily create genuinely realistic deepfakes become widespread. These capabilities continue to improve. Still, for now, high-quality does not necessarily equal high-impact.
South Africa - Polarisation is not inevitable
Across the globe, societies face challenges of polarisation. Algorithms spoon-feed people content that reinforces preexisting beliefs. Groupthink, confirmation bias, and cognitive dissonance help people ignore information that challenges their worldview. Opportunistic leaders pit ‘us’ versus ‘them’, tell their followers that it’s all-or nothing, then reject legitimate election results.
South Africa’s May 2024 election was no exception. Polarising disinformation was spread, including against the election management body. However, when no party scored a majority, the centre ground bridged political divides to form a historic ‘Government of National Unity’. The rainbow nation sent a clear message: strategic vision and careful compromise can produce an alternative to social media-induced polarisation.
The pace of evolution of elections in 2024 reaffirm the need for citizens’ continual vigilance. The remainder of 2024 brings elections in countries including Botswana, Tunisia, Mozambique, Namibia, the USA, Moldova, Ghana and Mauritius. Here at WFD, the year of elections continues to be a year of learning from elections to inform our programmes, research, and policy advice.
We support electoral integrity by analysis, connecting stakeholders, creating dialogue and finding consensus around electoral challenges throughout the electoral cycle - aiming to improve the overall electoral environment an election takes place in.
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What we learned about information integrity from five 2024 elections
What we learned about information integrity from five 2024 elections
In 2023, vital progress was to promote information integrity in elections. This included a coordination centre and dedicated legislation against foreign information manipulation, common classification frameworks to harmonise analysis, and increased use of networks of cooperation to increase resilience.
But where are we halfway into 2024? Here are some selected highlights (or in some cases, lowlights) so far:
Taiwan – For information manipulators, books are back
Taiwan is often considered patient zero of China’s ‘United Front’ strategy of influence operations. Heading into 2024, Taiwan’s 13 January election was anticipated to provide insight on the very latest foreign influence tactics. Few would have guessed that these would include the unexpected resurrection of the humble book.
During the campaign, a 318-page book packed with disinformation, ‘The Secret History of Tsai Ing-Wen’ was circulated. The book used sexist falsehoods and tropes to smear Taiwan’s then-President. Analysts linked it to PRC-related information operation assets.
But why produce a book in the era of social media? According to NGO Doublethink Lab, the book served as a script for generative AI disinformation such as videos featuring newsreaders reading out sections of the book. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Albert Zhang noted that YouTube channels connected to Spamouflage, an information manipulation network, published at least 490 videos referencing the book between 4 and 10 January.
Comoros - Shutdowns still find new adherents
Internet shutdowns open the door to disinformation by silencing factcheckers and journalists. They violate freedom of expression and impose severe costs on the economy. 2023 was the worst year yet for shutdowns, but 2024 offered a chance for a fresh start.
Of the 64 countries that were scheduled to have an election in 2024, 24 of these had imposed an Internet shutdown in the past. By choosing to join their ranks, the Comoros (where elections were held on 14 January) showed that even countries with no history of shutdowns can be enticed by the allure of mass censorship during election times. Other countries which imposed shutdowns in early 2024 have included Azerbaijan, Pakistan, India, and Mauritania.
Pakistan - Generative AI can help prisoners campaign
Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party candidate Imran Khan was unable to campaign in-person in the February elections to return to the presidency as he had been imprisoned. However, by harnessing generative AI, he was able to virtually address hundreds of thousands of his supporters from behind bars.
This novel approach showed how AI is not just about disinformation and distrust, but can also help facilitate political participation – or at least, virtual participation.
India - Cheapfakes can still beat deepfakes
For years, analysts predicted impending democratic doom at the hand of deepfakes. The current picture this year has been mixed. For example, in Indonesia, deepfakes enabled the sidestepping of rules preventing children from appearing in campaign material, whereas in Mexico, Wilson Center analysts suggest that an overfocus on deepfakes risked diverting attention from other core issues.
Research shows that realism is not the only factor affecting the believability of disinformation: repetition, narrative appeal, perceived authority, group identification, and the viewer’s state of mind may all matter more. Indeed, in India’s election this year, factcheckers reported that low-quality ‘cheapfakes’ comprising modified and mislabelled videos had more impact than sophisticated deepfakes.
This may partly be a question of timing. Whilst it has long been easy to create poor-quality deepfakes, only recently has the capability to easily create genuinely realistic deepfakes become widespread. These capabilities continue to improve. Still, for now, high-quality does not necessarily equal high-impact.
South Africa - Polarisation is not inevitable
Across the globe, societies face challenges of polarisation. Algorithms spoon-feed people content that reinforces preexisting beliefs. Groupthink, confirmation bias, and cognitive dissonance help people ignore information that challenges their worldview. Opportunistic leaders pit ‘us’ versus ‘them’, tell their followers that it’s all-or nothing, then reject legitimate election results.
South Africa’s May 2024 election was no exception. Polarising disinformation was spread, including against the election management body. However, when no party scored a majority, the centre ground bridged political divides to form a historic ‘Government of National Unity’. The rainbow nation sent a clear message: strategic vision and careful compromise can produce an alternative to social media-induced polarisation.
The pace of evolution of elections in 2024 reaffirm the need for citizens’ continual vigilance. The remainder of 2024 brings elections in countries including Botswana, Tunisia, Mozambique, Namibia, the USA, Moldova, Ghana and Mauritius. Here at WFD, the year of elections continues to be a year of learning from elections to inform our programmes, research, and policy advice.
We support electoral integrity by analysis, connecting stakeholders, creating dialogue and finding consensus around electoral challenges throughout the electoral cycle - aiming to improve the overall electoral environment an election takes place in.
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