Reflections from 2024

Commentary

Reflections from 2024

As we approach the end of yet another significant year for global democracy, Anthony Smith, CEO at WFD shares his reflections from the past 12 months, as well as plans and predictions for 2025.
Image
A woman holding an umbrella to protect herself from a force, a woman holding up a heart with a thriving society inside, a woman crossing a bridge towards a better future

 

Could elections be like London buses? You wait ages for one to arrive and then three come at the same time. Except in 2024, it was more like 20 elections one after another for a whole year. What did they tell us about the state of democracy in the world? And what do they mean for our work in 2025? 

 

Elections can still do that thing that only democracies are able to, namely, get rid of incumbents peacefully. That happened in the UK, France, the US and quite a few African countries including Senegal, Botswana and Ghana. There’s obviously a lot more to democracy than an election but for a neutral it was a relief to see a decent crop of governments being displaced through popular votes. (Do look at this Pew Research article too). These were on top of other and sometimes very difficult elections in many countries where WFD works such as Georgia, Thailand, Indonesia and Jordan. 

 

At the same time, there is both evidence and anecdote that the cost of campaigns keeps going up, making the alignment of political and economic power closer than ever. That is certainly coming across in WFD’s latest Cost of Politics research case studies from South and Southeast Asia, as well as in reported costs in the US and some other countries. Women, young people and others are even further from getting a fair chance to run for office. Add in the fact that control of digital technology is in the hands of a small number of platforms owned by the super-rich, and there are some warning signs ahead. When we discuss this research with partners we repeatedly see how important women’s political leadership is and can be for deepening democracy and solving a range of policy problems. 

 

Against that background, recent OECD work on losing and restoring trust in government felt timely. Doing badly in providing basic public services really undermines trust, and fixing that is critical, especially since there are many more complex challenges for governments to tackle. But the OECD work also underlined the fundamental importance of political participation as a deeper remedy. To paraphrase a recent letter to the Guardian, “delivery” is important but not enough - voters also need a personal stake in democracy and countries need a deeper democratic culture. Without that, dishonest populists and disinformation will have an easy ride.  

 

The lessons from the 2024 elections combined with the policy challenges that our societies face – stagnant economic growth, climate breakdown, conflict and forced migration – will shape the new strategy that WFD will prepare in 2025. Accountability, inclusion and the rule of law feel more important than ever, for three big reasons. 

 

First, to save our collective domestic politics. In so many countries, most people feel there is a huge gap between them and the political system that governs their everyday lives. This particularly affects women, who face structural barriers to participation in politics. Trust in governments, parties, and parliaments is therefore low, often for good reasons. People aren’t rejecting democracy – they are reacting to democracy’s failings. The problem comes when political leaders exploit this to undermine democracy. 

 

Second, to achieve our national security objectives (and here “national” means any of the countries that you and others reading this may be in). The world desperately needs to tackle some big and complex problems threatening our collective futures – lasting peace in Ukraine and the Middle East, low growth, climate breakdown, unreliable supply chains, deepening conflict and the migration and trafficking that goes with it. Sourcing rare minerals, sticking with climate commitments, managing national debt, building strong trading relationships, controlling new technologies – none of these will be possible with disenfranchised, disaffected and dispossessed populations in our or our partner countries. We all need to be part of the politics of solving 21st century problems or none of us will succeed. 

 

Third, the world needs an international reset. Globalisation had its failings but the current geopolitics feel a lot worse. Part of that can be the renewed international social contract that the UN Secretary General spoke of. That means respectful relationships that are built on accountability, inclusion and the rule of law. Democracy feels like a big part of the answer to this problem too. 

 

So in 2025, WFD will follow the recent advice of the UK’s Attorney General and come together with our partners “to exchange views, international experiences, and … coalesce around shared commitments to the rule of law, democracy and human rights.” I hope we can count on you to join that exchange. 

 

Please have a peaceful and reflective holiday break.