4 July 2024 – the date of the UK’s general election – was almost exactly the mid-point of the biggest election year in history, which will see countries home to more than half the world’s population head to the polls.
With six months of ‘the year of elections’ to go, what are some emerging early lessons for democracy? The experience of regional hegemons South Africa and India – two countries that held elections in the first half of this year – are instructive for those who share WFD’s ambition to protect and strengthen democracy around the world.
Leaders must deliver democracy as well as development
First, we see that the desire for development is a strong incentive leaders need to respond to – but also that citizens do care about democratic rights and values.
"The desire for development is a strong incentive leaders need to respond to – but also that citizens do care about democratic rights and values."
Corruption, mismanagement, and state capture – and the fact that South Africa had become the most unequal country on the globe – have plagued the political landscape in the country over the last 20 years. The economic disparities that apartheid entrenched had not been adequately addressed, with unemployment at over 50% among young people. Over the past thirty years, the promise of 1994 has steadily disappeared and support for the African National Congress (ANC), in power since then, has steadily declined.
For a decade, India’s Prime Minster Modi has been delivering on his promise of making India the world’s third-largest economy by 2027. India has better infrastructure, a new welfare system, and a growing geopolitical weight. However, good jobs are too scarce, Muslims suffer discrimination and violence, and the BJP, Modi’s party, has captured institutions and persecuted the media and opposition. Mr Modi’s political goal was to concentrate power by stoking Hindu nationalism and spreading a message of rising prosperity. The centralisation of power and Modi's polarizing, strongman politics with autocratic tendencies are seen by many as key factors in the BJP's loss of support.
Feedback on political performance is still delivered through elections
Secondly, India and South Africa have shown that citizens still use elections to feed back on political performance.
"Citizens still use elections to feed back on political performance."
In India, following a fiercely fought electoral campaign marked by information disorder, a crackdown on civil society, and violence, more than 640 million people voted in a marathon seven-week election. On 4 and 5 June 2024 the ruling Hindu conservative party got a shock: the BJP-led NDA coalition fell short of the 272 seats it needed to govern – a far cry from the 350-380 seats expected to go to them.
In South Africa, although the ANC remains the biggest party following the 29 May election, it was also the biggest loser of the most consequential elections since the advent of democracy in South Africa. In 1994 the ANC received 62.7% and became the ruling party. Under Mandela’s and later Mbeki’s leadership, the party’s support grew to just under 70% in 2004. Support has declined since 2007, and in 2024, the ANC won just 40% of the vote, an all-time low that lost the ANC its majority and therefore its ability to govern for the first time.
Electoral commissions play a crucial role in safeguarding democracy
Third, only if a trusted, independent election commission enforces the rules and people trust their judgement is a democratic transition of power possible. Existential political changes like those we saw in South Africa and India can lead to chaos if there is no foundation of a strong electoral institution. Electoral commissions are crucial in guarding the integrity of the electoral process, its results, and the wider democratic process.
"Only if a trusted, independent election commission enforces the rules and people trust their judgement is a democratic transition of power possible."
In South Africa, the return of former president Zuma to the political scene with the newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party contributed to a tense political atmosphere and a heightened risk of post-election conflict. The party capitalised on widespread discontent within the ANC’s traditional voter base and received almost 15% of the vote.
Several violent incidences were recorded around the electoral process. The MK Party claimed that the declared result and Ramaphosa’s re-election was tantamount to a coup, approaching the constitutional and the electoral court for direct access to challenge the result.
South Africa’s election management body, the Electoral Commission (IEC) is enshrined in the Constitution of South Africa as an independent body with sufficient autonomy to manage and respond to threats to the electoral process. Its financial independence affords it the flexibility to adapt and respond to challenges as they arise. The legal framework for elections in South Africa provides the IEC a sound governance framework under which to operate – including mandating formal policies and procedures to manage risks. These both help avert risks and enable the IEC to respond effectively when dealing with potential crises.
The electoral commission’s independence is an important factor in enforcing the rules of the electoral game and the parties’ ethical conduct, as well as safeguarding the integrity of the electoral process. The fact that public opinion in South Africa has been generally satisfied with the management of elections for the past 30 years is critical to manage the risk of a changing political situation and have democracy prevail.
In India, the fiercely fought campaign and the unexpected outcome created a challenging political situation, as the once all-powerful party now needs to rely on allies – all ingredients of electoral disputes, mistrust, and potential political conflicts. The Election Commission of India (ECI) is a constitutionally empowered body that has ensured the integrity of 17 national and over 370 state elections since 1947, in what is both the most populous and one of the most potentially fractious democracies in the world. It is globally respected and one of the most trusted public institutions in India. It has withstood pressure from the executive branch and governing parties and strengthened its autonomy over decades. The rise of the Hindu Nationalist BJP as the new dominant force in Indian politics provided a crucial test for the endurance of the ECI’s role as India’s guardian of electoral integrity. In the 2024 election the ECI stood its ground and protected the gains of Indian democracy, enforcing legislation and regulation on all fronts in a transparent and accountable way.
Among other things, it issued warnings to the leaders of the BJP and Congress when their top candidates had violated the code of conduct. None of the defeated candidates – not a candidate defeated by just 48 votes – questioned the fairness of the result. This testifies to the resilience and credibility of the country's electoral process and electoral mechanisms, made all the more impressive because never before in human history have so many people been called to vote.
As the world looks towards the next batch of this year’s elections, we can already see that in times of political change – when leaders are facing warnings for broken promises and strongman politics – the strength and independence of electoral institutions can make the difference between a peaceful transfer of power and a breakdown of order.
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Lessons from South Africa and India’s 2024 elections
Lessons from South Africa and India’s 2024 elections
4 July 2024 – the date of the UK’s general election – was almost exactly the mid-point of the biggest election year in history, which will see countries home to more than half the world’s population head to the polls.
With six months of ‘the year of elections’ to go, what are some emerging early lessons for democracy? The experience of regional hegemons South Africa and India – two countries that held elections in the first half of this year – are instructive for those who share WFD’s ambition to protect and strengthen democracy around the world.
Leaders must deliver democracy as well as development
First, we see that the desire for development is a strong incentive leaders need to respond to – but also that citizens do care about democratic rights and values.
Corruption, mismanagement, and state capture – and the fact that South Africa had become the most unequal country on the globe – have plagued the political landscape in the country over the last 20 years. The economic disparities that apartheid entrenched had not been adequately addressed, with unemployment at over 50% among young people. Over the past thirty years, the promise of 1994 has steadily disappeared and support for the African National Congress (ANC), in power since then, has steadily declined.
For a decade, India’s Prime Minster Modi has been delivering on his promise of making India the world’s third-largest economy by 2027. India has better infrastructure, a new welfare system, and a growing geopolitical weight. However, good jobs are too scarce, Muslims suffer discrimination and violence, and the BJP, Modi’s party, has captured institutions and persecuted the media and opposition. Mr Modi’s political goal was to concentrate power by stoking Hindu nationalism and spreading a message of rising prosperity. The centralisation of power and Modi's polarizing, strongman politics with autocratic tendencies are seen by many as key factors in the BJP's loss of support.
Feedback on political performance is still delivered through elections
Secondly, India and South Africa have shown that citizens still use elections to feed back on political performance.
In India, following a fiercely fought electoral campaign marked by information disorder, a crackdown on civil society, and violence, more than 640 million people voted in a marathon seven-week election. On 4 and 5 June 2024 the ruling Hindu conservative party got a shock: the BJP-led NDA coalition fell short of the 272 seats it needed to govern – a far cry from the 350-380 seats expected to go to them.
In South Africa, although the ANC remains the biggest party following the 29 May election, it was also the biggest loser of the most consequential elections since the advent of democracy in South Africa. In 1994 the ANC received 62.7% and became the ruling party. Under Mandela’s and later Mbeki’s leadership, the party’s support grew to just under 70% in 2004. Support has declined since 2007, and in 2024, the ANC won just 40% of the vote, an all-time low that lost the ANC its majority and therefore its ability to govern for the first time.
Electoral commissions play a crucial role in safeguarding democracy
Third, only if a trusted, independent election commission enforces the rules and people trust their judgement is a democratic transition of power possible. Existential political changes like those we saw in South Africa and India can lead to chaos if there is no foundation of a strong electoral institution. Electoral commissions are crucial in guarding the integrity of the electoral process, its results, and the wider democratic process.
In South Africa, the return of former president Zuma to the political scene with the newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party contributed to a tense political atmosphere and a heightened risk of post-election conflict. The party capitalised on widespread discontent within the ANC’s traditional voter base and received almost 15% of the vote.
Several violent incidences were recorded around the electoral process. The MK Party claimed that the declared result and Ramaphosa’s re-election was tantamount to a coup, approaching the constitutional and the electoral court for direct access to challenge the result.
South Africa’s election management body, the Electoral Commission (IEC) is enshrined in the Constitution of South Africa as an independent body with sufficient autonomy to manage and respond to threats to the electoral process. Its financial independence affords it the flexibility to adapt and respond to challenges as they arise. The legal framework for elections in South Africa provides the IEC a sound governance framework under which to operate – including mandating formal policies and procedures to manage risks. These both help avert risks and enable the IEC to respond effectively when dealing with potential crises.
The electoral commission’s independence is an important factor in enforcing the rules of the electoral game and the parties’ ethical conduct, as well as safeguarding the integrity of the electoral process. The fact that public opinion in South Africa has been generally satisfied with the management of elections for the past 30 years is critical to manage the risk of a changing political situation and have democracy prevail.
In India, the fiercely fought campaign and the unexpected outcome created a challenging political situation, as the once all-powerful party now needs to rely on allies – all ingredients of electoral disputes, mistrust, and potential political conflicts. The Election Commission of India (ECI) is a constitutionally empowered body that has ensured the integrity of 17 national and over 370 state elections since 1947, in what is both the most populous and one of the most potentially fractious democracies in the world. It is globally respected and one of the most trusted public institutions in India. It has withstood pressure from the executive branch and governing parties and strengthened its autonomy over decades. The rise of the Hindu Nationalist BJP as the new dominant force in Indian politics provided a crucial test for the endurance of the ECI’s role as India’s guardian of electoral integrity. In the 2024 election the ECI stood its ground and protected the gains of Indian democracy, enforcing legislation and regulation on all fronts in a transparent and accountable way.
Among other things, it issued warnings to the leaders of the BJP and Congress when their top candidates had violated the code of conduct. None of the defeated candidates – not a candidate defeated by just 48 votes – questioned the fairness of the result. This testifies to the resilience and credibility of the country's electoral process and electoral mechanisms, made all the more impressive because never before in human history have so many people been called to vote.
As the world looks towards the next batch of this year’s elections, we can already see that in times of political change – when leaders are facing warnings for broken promises and strongman politics – the strength and independence of electoral institutions can make the difference between a peaceful transfer of power and a breakdown of order.
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